ハリケーン・ダービー（2004年）

Hurricane Darby (2004) — Grokipedia Fact-checked by Grok 3 months ago Hurricane Darby (2004) Ara Eve Leo Sal 1x Hurricane Darby was the fourth named storm and second hurricane of the 2004 Pacific hurricane season, forming as a tropical depression on July 26 about 660 nautical miles south-southwest of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico, from a tropical wave that originated off the African coast earlier in the month. [1] It intensified into a tropical storm on July 27, reached hurricane strength on July 28, and peaked as a Category 3 hurricane on July 29 with maximum sustained winds of 105 knots (120 mph) and a minimum central pressure of 957 millibars, before weakening and crossing into the central Pacific basin on July 31. [1] The storm dissipated on August 1 about 740 nautical miles east of the Hawaiian Islands, with its remnants later bringing heavy rainfall and flooding to parts of Hawaii on August 3–4, though no significant damage or casualties were reported from the hurricane itself. [1] Darby's track took it westward initially under the influence of a subtropical ridge, shifting west-northwestward before resuming westward motion, remaining entirely over open ocean and never directly threatening land areas in Mexico or elsewhere. [1] Observations relied heavily on satellite estimates, including the Dvorak technique from agencies like the Tropical Analysis and Forecast Branch (TAFB) and Satellite Analysis Branch (SAB), supplemented by microwave imagery from satellites such as QuikSCAT and TRMM, which confirmed the storm's peak intensity over the eastern North Pacific. [1] No tropical storm-force winds were recorded on land, and watches or warnings were unnecessary, underscoring Darby's remote path. [1] The cyclone's development was gradual due to moderate wind shear and variable sea surface temperatures, but it briefly became a major hurricane before shear and cooler waters caused rapid weakening. [1] Forecasting assessments indicated that official track predictions were more accurate than the 1994–2003 average through 96 hours, while intensity forecasts performed comparably, highlighting improvements in operational models for that season. [1] Overall, Darby exemplified a typical mid-season Pacific hurricane with minimal societal impact but valuable data for meteorological analysis. [1] Meteorological History Precursor Activity A tropical wave emerged off the west coast of Africa on July 12, 2004 (UTC), marking the precursor to what would become Hurricane Darby, the fifth tropical cyclone of the 2004 eastern North Pacific hurricane season. The disturbance moved westward across the Atlantic Ocean, passing through the Caribbean Sea with virtually no signs of organization or development during this phase. It crossed into the eastern North Pacific Ocean on July 20, 2004, maintaining a generally westward trajectory while remaining a broad, elongated trough with scattered convection. [1] Initial signs of organization appeared on July 23, 2004, as the wave exhibited increased convective activity and began to develop a weak area of low pressure near 13°N, 120°W. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) initiated monitoring of the disturbance in their Tropical Weather Outlooks beginning July 24, 2004, assessing a low (less than 30%) chance of tropical cyclone formation within 48 hours but noting potential for gradual development over the subsequent five days. By July 25, 2004, satellite imagery revealed intermittent bursts of deep convection, though the system remained disorganized. [2] [1] Environmental conditions during this precursor phase were only marginally conducive to slow organization. Moderate vertical wind shear periodically disrupted convective patterns, while sea surface temperatures provided sufficient thermal energy but not optimal for rapid genesis. These factors contributed to the disturbance's gradual evolution without significant strengthening until later stages. [1] Formation and Early Development Hurricane Darby originated from a tropical wave that departed the west coast of Africa on July 12 and traversed the Atlantic and Caribbean Seas without significant development before entering the eastern North Pacific on July 20. [1] Signs of organization emerged on July 23 as the system moved westward, leading to its classification as Tropical Depression Five-E on July 26, 2004, at 1200 UTC, when it was centered approximately 760 miles (1,220 km) south-southwest of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico, at 12.2°N 112.8°W. [1] The depression exhibited a well-defined low-level circulation center with scattered convective banding, though organization remained slow, and it moved westward under the steering influence of a subtropical ridge to its north. [1] Initial intensity estimates placed maximum sustained winds at 25 knots (29 mph), with a central pressure of 1008 mb. [1] By 1800 UTC on July 26, the depression had intensified slightly, with winds reaching 30 knots (35 mph) and pressure falling to 1007 mb, as it drifted to 12.3°N 114.2°W. [1] Convective activity began to consolidate near the center, supported by satellite microwave imagery from sources including NOAA polar-orbiting satellites and NASA's QuikSCAT, which confirmed the circulation's structure without evidence of tropical storm-force winds at the surface. [1] The system was upgraded to Tropical Storm Darby on July 27, 2004, at 0000 UTC, as winds increased to 35 knots (40 mph) and the central pressure dropped to 1003 mb, positioning it at 12.5°N 115.5°W. [1] Satellite analyses revealed an established upper-level outflow pattern and improving banding features in the convection, marking the storm's early organizational phase. [1] Darby then turned west-northwestward while continuing to strengthen, with initial National Hurricane Center forecasts predicting further intensification to hurricane strength within 48 hours, though early track guidance erred by projecting a position too far south and movement too slow. [1] Intensification and Peak Intensity On July 28, 2004, at 0000 UTC, Tropical Storm Darby strengthened into a Category 1 hurricane on the Saffir–Simpson Hurricane Scale, with maximum sustained winds reaching 75 mph (120 km/h) and a minimum central pressure of 987 mbar (29.14 inHg), located at 14.1°N 120.5°W. [1] This upgrade coincided with the development of a well-defined eye feature visible in satellite imagery and a shift in the storm's track to the northwest, away from the Mexican coast under the influence of a subtropical ridge. [3] The hurricane continued to intensify steadily through the day, benefiting from low vertical wind shear and sea surface temperatures warmer than normal, estimated above 28°C in the region, which fueled convective activity. [4] Rapid intensification ensued later on July 28, with Darby reaching Category 2 status by 1800 UTC, boasting winds of 100 mph (155 km/h) and pressure of 970 mbar (28.65 inHg) at 15.8°N 124.0°W. [1] Over the next 12 hours, the storm underwent further explosive strengthening, attaining Category 3 major hurricane intensity shortly thereafter—the first such event in the eastern North Pacific since Hurricane Kenna of 2002. Peak intensity occurred on July 29 at 0600 UTC, with sustained winds of 120 mph (195 km/h), a minimum pressure of 957 mbar (28.26 inHg), and position approximately 1,000 miles (1,600 km) west-southwest of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico, at 16.8°N 126.2°W. [1] This phase was supported by good upper-level outflow, allowing efficient mass export and enabling the storm to organize despite its remote open-ocean location. [1] Satellite observations during this period, including infrared and microwave imagery from GOES and polar-orbiting satellites, revealed well-organized convection with a symmetric central dense overcast transitioning to a distinct eyewall structure by peak intensity. [1] The Dvorak technique estimates from the National Hurricane Center's Tropical Analysis and Forecast Branch confirmed the rapid pressure falls and wind increases, highlighting Darby's compact, efficient vortex at maximum strength before environmental changes initiated decline. [1] Weakening and Dissipation After reaching peak intensity with maximum sustained winds of 105 knots (120 mph) earlier on July 29, Hurricane Darby began a steady weakening phase later that day due to a combination of cooler sea-surface temperatures and increasing westerly vertical shear, which disrupted the storm's convective structure and led to a less defined eye with fragmented convection. [1] By 1800 UTC on July 29, the cyclone had been downgraded to a Category 2 hurricane with winds of 95 knots, positioned at 17.8°N, 128.2°W. [1] Continued exposure to these unfavorable conditions eroded the storm's organization overnight, resulting in its further downgrade to a Category 1 hurricane by 0000 UTC on July 30, with winds decreasing to 75 knots at 18.1°N, 129.2°W. [1] The weakening accelerated on July 30 as the low-level center became increasingly exposed south of the main convective mass, prompting another downgrade to tropical storm status by 1200 UTC, when winds had fallen to 55 knots at 18.4°N, 131.7°W. [1] By 1800 UTC that day, Darby's winds had diminished to 45 knots at 18.6°N, 133.2°W, reflecting the persistent shear and cooler waters that suppressed redevelopment. [1] The system tracked westward into the Central Pacific Hurricane Center's area of responsibility on July 31, crossing 140°W into the central North Pacific basin. [1] Further degeneration occurred on July 31, with Darby weakening to a tropical depression by 1200 UTC, exhibiting maximum winds of 30 knots at 18.8°N, 137.3°W. [1] The depression's convection continued to diminish under moderate shear, and by 1200 UTC on August 1, it had lost all tropical characteristics, dissipating as a tropical cyclone approximately 740 nautical miles east of the Hawaiian Islands, with remnants manifesting as a low-level cloud swirl advected westward by trade winds. [1] The final position of the system was