雇用データが安定し、FRBのタカ派に利下げを控える理由を与える

Payrolls are improving versus 2025, with unemployment at 4.3% and claims low, giving Fed hawks more room to oppose 2026 cuts. Payrolls are improving versus 2025, with unemployment at 4.3% and claims low, giving Fed hawks more room to oppose 2026 cuts. The jobs data is stabilizing, folks. The big slowdown in job creation in 2025, which led to the lowest job creation year this century outside a recession, has ended. The labor data isn’t getting worse — in fact it’s improving from the levels we saw in 2025. This means the Fed hawks can focus on inflation, since there are a lot of Fed rate cuts already in the system, and mortgage spreads have improved as well. Kevin Warsh will have his work cut out for him as the new Fed chair, as he will face many vocal dissenters who only went along with rate cuts last year because the labor data was softening. With jobless claims low, job openings stabilizing and job creation now higher, certain Fed Hawks will want to have an open conflict with Kevin Warsh and others who want more rate cuts. Let’s take a look at the jobs report to see what is really going on. From BLS : Total nonfarm payroll employment edged up by 115,000 in April, and the unemployment rate was unchanged at 4.3 percent, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. Job gains occurred in health care, transportation and warehousing, and retail trade. Federal government employment continued to decline. The breadth of job creation has improved in 2026; it is still healthcare-heavy, but in this report, we saw a few job sectors show growth, as shown in the chart below. Which now makes back-to-back months we have seen this, and, in fact, all three months that were positive in 2026 have had better breadth than before. ’